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Volume 16, Issue 1
The Drivers and Forecasting of Summer Precipitation over the Yangtze-Huai River Basin Based on the Empirical Orthogonal Teleconnection

Aihaiti Ailiyaer, Lianhua Zhu, Yiyi Yao, Weihao Zhao & Fanran Xu

J. Info. Comput. Sci. , 16 (2021), pp. 077-080.

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In this paper, the Empirical Orthogonal Teleconnection (EOT) analysis is applied to extract the leading modes of summer precipitation from 1951 to 2010 over the Yangtze-Huai River Basin. To analyze the time period of precipitation, the spectrum analysis is performed on the time series of EOT modes. Furthermore, the correlation analysis is used to discuss their drivers, and the major drivers are introduced to construct the forecasting model of summer precipitation. Results show that, the first three leading EOTs can explain about 63% variability of precipitation. The inter-annual, nearly decadal and decadal period signals of the EOT time series (T1-T3) are most significant, respectively. The East Asian summer monsoon (EASM), East Asia/Pacific pattern (EAP), Nino3.4 and Southern Annular Mode (SAM) indices are correlated with T1; the Nino3.4, the Northern Annular Mode (NAM) and SAM indices are correlated with T2, and Indian Ocean Dipole mode (IOD) is correlated with T3. The forecasting model can well capture the main characteristic of summer precipitation.

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@Article{JICS-16-077, author = {Ailiyaer , AihaitiZhu , LianhuaYao , YiyiZhao , Weihao and Xu , Fanran}, title = {The Drivers and Forecasting of Summer Precipitation over the Yangtze-Huai River Basin Based on the Empirical Orthogonal Teleconnection}, journal = {Journal of Information and Computing Science}, year = {2024}, volume = {16}, number = {1}, pages = {077--080}, abstract = {

In this paper, the Empirical Orthogonal Teleconnection (EOT) analysis is applied to extract the leading modes of summer precipitation from 1951 to 2010 over the Yangtze-Huai River Basin. To analyze the time period of precipitation, the spectrum analysis is performed on the time series of EOT modes. Furthermore, the correlation analysis is used to discuss their drivers, and the major drivers are introduced to construct the forecasting model of summer precipitation. Results show that, the first three leading EOTs can explain about 63% variability of precipitation. The inter-annual, nearly decadal and decadal period signals of the EOT time series (T1-T3) are most significant, respectively. The East Asian summer monsoon (EASM), East Asia/Pacific pattern (EAP), Nino3.4 and Southern Annular Mode (SAM) indices are correlated with T1; the Nino3.4, the Northern Annular Mode (NAM) and SAM indices are correlated with T2, and Indian Ocean Dipole mode (IOD) is correlated with T3. The forecasting model can well capture the main characteristic of summer precipitation.

}, issn = {1746-7659}, doi = {https://doi.org/}, url = {http://global-sci.org/intro/article_detail/jics/22382.html} }
TY - JOUR T1 - The Drivers and Forecasting of Summer Precipitation over the Yangtze-Huai River Basin Based on the Empirical Orthogonal Teleconnection AU - Ailiyaer , Aihaiti AU - Zhu , Lianhua AU - Yao , Yiyi AU - Zhao , Weihao AU - Xu , Fanran JO - Journal of Information and Computing Science VL - 1 SP - 077 EP - 080 PY - 2024 DA - 2024/01 SN - 16 DO - http://doi.org/ UR - https://global-sci.org/intro/article_detail/jics/22382.html KW - EOT, Summer precipitation, EASM, EAP, Nino3.4, IOD, NAM, SAM. AB -

In this paper, the Empirical Orthogonal Teleconnection (EOT) analysis is applied to extract the leading modes of summer precipitation from 1951 to 2010 over the Yangtze-Huai River Basin. To analyze the time period of precipitation, the spectrum analysis is performed on the time series of EOT modes. Furthermore, the correlation analysis is used to discuss their drivers, and the major drivers are introduced to construct the forecasting model of summer precipitation. Results show that, the first three leading EOTs can explain about 63% variability of precipitation. The inter-annual, nearly decadal and decadal period signals of the EOT time series (T1-T3) are most significant, respectively. The East Asian summer monsoon (EASM), East Asia/Pacific pattern (EAP), Nino3.4 and Southern Annular Mode (SAM) indices are correlated with T1; the Nino3.4, the Northern Annular Mode (NAM) and SAM indices are correlated with T2, and Indian Ocean Dipole mode (IOD) is correlated with T3. The forecasting model can well capture the main characteristic of summer precipitation.

Ailiyaer , AihaitiZhu , LianhuaYao , YiyiZhao , Weihao and Xu , Fanran. (2024). The Drivers and Forecasting of Summer Precipitation over the Yangtze-Huai River Basin Based on the Empirical Orthogonal Teleconnection. Journal of Information and Computing Science. 16 (1). 077-080. doi:
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