Volume 5, Issue 2
COVID-19 Epidemic Prediction Based on Deep Learning

Rui Li, Zhihan Zhang & Peng Liu

J. Nonl. Mod. Anal., 5 (2023), pp. 354-365.

Published online: 2023-08

[An open-access article; the PDF is free to any online user.]

Export citation
  • Abstract

In this paper, a multi-layer gated recurrent unit neural network (multi-head GRU) model is proposed to predict the confirmed cases of the new crown epidemic (COVID-19). We extract the time series relationship in the data, and the rolling prediction method is adopted to ensure the simple structure of the model and achieve higher precision and interpretability. The prediction results of this model are compared with the LSTM model, the Transformer model and the infectious disease model (SIR). The results show that the proposed model has higher prediction accuracy. The mean absolute error (MAE) of epidemic prediction in most countries (the United States, Brazil, India, the United Kingdom and Russia) is respectively 197.52, 68.02, 200.67, 24.78 and 123.50, which is much smaller than the prediction error of the SIR model, LSTM model and Transformer model. For the spread of the COVID-19 epidemic, traditional infectious disease models and machine learning models cannot achieve more accurate predictions. In this paper, we use a GRU model to predict the real-time spread of COVID-19, which has fewer parameters so that it can reduce the risk of overfitting to train faster. Meanwhile, it can compensate for the transformer model’s shortcomings to capture local features.

  • AMS Subject Headings

68T07, 92B20

  • Copyright

COPYRIGHT: © Global Science Press

  • Email address
  • BibTex
  • RIS
  • TXT
@Article{JNMA-5-354, author = {Li , RuiZhang , Zhihan and Liu , Peng}, title = {COVID-19 Epidemic Prediction Based on Deep Learning}, journal = {Journal of Nonlinear Modeling and Analysis}, year = {2023}, volume = {5}, number = {2}, pages = {354--365}, abstract = {

In this paper, a multi-layer gated recurrent unit neural network (multi-head GRU) model is proposed to predict the confirmed cases of the new crown epidemic (COVID-19). We extract the time series relationship in the data, and the rolling prediction method is adopted to ensure the simple structure of the model and achieve higher precision and interpretability. The prediction results of this model are compared with the LSTM model, the Transformer model and the infectious disease model (SIR). The results show that the proposed model has higher prediction accuracy. The mean absolute error (MAE) of epidemic prediction in most countries (the United States, Brazil, India, the United Kingdom and Russia) is respectively 197.52, 68.02, 200.67, 24.78 and 123.50, which is much smaller than the prediction error of the SIR model, LSTM model and Transformer model. For the spread of the COVID-19 epidemic, traditional infectious disease models and machine learning models cannot achieve more accurate predictions. In this paper, we use a GRU model to predict the real-time spread of COVID-19, which has fewer parameters so that it can reduce the risk of overfitting to train faster. Meanwhile, it can compensate for the transformer model’s shortcomings to capture local features.

}, issn = {2562-2862}, doi = {https://doi.org/10.12150/jnma.2023.354}, url = {http://global-sci.org/intro/article_detail/jnma/21930.html} }
TY - JOUR T1 - COVID-19 Epidemic Prediction Based on Deep Learning AU - Li , Rui AU - Zhang , Zhihan AU - Liu , Peng JO - Journal of Nonlinear Modeling and Analysis VL - 2 SP - 354 EP - 365 PY - 2023 DA - 2023/08 SN - 5 DO - http://doi.org/10.12150/jnma.2023.354 UR - https://global-sci.org/intro/article_detail/jnma/21930.html KW - COVID-19, deep learning, time series forecasting, gated recurrent unit neural network. AB -

In this paper, a multi-layer gated recurrent unit neural network (multi-head GRU) model is proposed to predict the confirmed cases of the new crown epidemic (COVID-19). We extract the time series relationship in the data, and the rolling prediction method is adopted to ensure the simple structure of the model and achieve higher precision and interpretability. The prediction results of this model are compared with the LSTM model, the Transformer model and the infectious disease model (SIR). The results show that the proposed model has higher prediction accuracy. The mean absolute error (MAE) of epidemic prediction in most countries (the United States, Brazil, India, the United Kingdom and Russia) is respectively 197.52, 68.02, 200.67, 24.78 and 123.50, which is much smaller than the prediction error of the SIR model, LSTM model and Transformer model. For the spread of the COVID-19 epidemic, traditional infectious disease models and machine learning models cannot achieve more accurate predictions. In this paper, we use a GRU model to predict the real-time spread of COVID-19, which has fewer parameters so that it can reduce the risk of overfitting to train faster. Meanwhile, it can compensate for the transformer model’s shortcomings to capture local features.

Rui Li, Zhihan Zhang & Peng Liu. (2023). COVID-19 Epidemic Prediction Based on Deep Learning. Journal of Nonlinear Modeling and Analysis. 5 (2). 354-365. doi:10.12150/jnma.2023.354
Copy to clipboard
The citation has been copied to your clipboard