Volume 4, Issue 2
Noise-Induced Transitions for an SIV Epidemic Model with Medical-Resource Constraints

Ran Yu, Anji Yang & Sanling Yuan

J. Nonl. Mod. Anal., 4 (2022), pp. 371-391.

Published online: 2022-06

[An open-access article; the PDF is free to any online user.]

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  • Abstract

We consider a stochastically forced epidemic model with medical-resource constraints. In the deterministic case, the model can exhibit two type bistability phenomena, i.e., bistability between an endemic equilibrium or an interior limit cycle and the disease-free equilibrium, which means that whether the disease can persist in the population is sensitive to the initial values of the model. In the stochastic case, the phenomena of noise-induced state transitions between two stochastic attractors occur. Namely, under the random disturbances, the stochastic trajectory near the endemic equilibrium or the interior limit cycle will approach to the disease-free equilibrium. Besides, based on the stochastic sensitivity function method, we analyze the dispersion of random states in stochastic attractors and construct the confidence domains (confidence ellipse or confidence band) to estimate the threshold value of the intensity for noise caused transition from the endemic to disease eradication.

  • AMS Subject Headings

34K50, 60H10, 93E03

  • Copyright

COPYRIGHT: © Global Science Press

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@Article{JNMA-4-371, author = {Yu , RanYang , Anji and Yuan , Sanling}, title = {Noise-Induced Transitions for an SIV Epidemic Model with Medical-Resource Constraints}, journal = {Journal of Nonlinear Modeling and Analysis}, year = {2022}, volume = {4}, number = {2}, pages = {371--391}, abstract = {

We consider a stochastically forced epidemic model with medical-resource constraints. In the deterministic case, the model can exhibit two type bistability phenomena, i.e., bistability between an endemic equilibrium or an interior limit cycle and the disease-free equilibrium, which means that whether the disease can persist in the population is sensitive to the initial values of the model. In the stochastic case, the phenomena of noise-induced state transitions between two stochastic attractors occur. Namely, under the random disturbances, the stochastic trajectory near the endemic equilibrium or the interior limit cycle will approach to the disease-free equilibrium. Besides, based on the stochastic sensitivity function method, we analyze the dispersion of random states in stochastic attractors and construct the confidence domains (confidence ellipse or confidence band) to estimate the threshold value of the intensity for noise caused transition from the endemic to disease eradication.

}, issn = {2562-2862}, doi = {https://doi.org/10.12150/jnma.2022.371}, url = {http://global-sci.org/intro/article_detail/jnma/20713.html} }
TY - JOUR T1 - Noise-Induced Transitions for an SIV Epidemic Model with Medical-Resource Constraints AU - Yu , Ran AU - Yang , Anji AU - Yuan , Sanling JO - Journal of Nonlinear Modeling and Analysis VL - 2 SP - 371 EP - 391 PY - 2022 DA - 2022/06 SN - 4 DO - http://doi.org/10.12150/jnma.2022.371 UR - https://global-sci.org/intro/article_detail/jnma/20713.html KW - Epidemic model, Medical-resource constraints, Noise-induced transitions, Stochastic sensitivity, Confidence domain. AB -

We consider a stochastically forced epidemic model with medical-resource constraints. In the deterministic case, the model can exhibit two type bistability phenomena, i.e., bistability between an endemic equilibrium or an interior limit cycle and the disease-free equilibrium, which means that whether the disease can persist in the population is sensitive to the initial values of the model. In the stochastic case, the phenomena of noise-induced state transitions between two stochastic attractors occur. Namely, under the random disturbances, the stochastic trajectory near the endemic equilibrium or the interior limit cycle will approach to the disease-free equilibrium. Besides, based on the stochastic sensitivity function method, we analyze the dispersion of random states in stochastic attractors and construct the confidence domains (confidence ellipse or confidence band) to estimate the threshold value of the intensity for noise caused transition from the endemic to disease eradication.

Ran Yu, Anji Yang & Sanling Yuan. (2022). Noise-Induced Transitions for an SIV Epidemic Model with Medical-Resource Constraints. Journal of Nonlinear Modeling and Analysis. 4 (2). 371-391. doi:10.12150/jnma.2022.371
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