TY - JOUR T1 - Ultra-Chaos: An Insurmountable Objective Obstacle of Reproducibility and Replication AU - Liao , Shijun AU - Qin , Shijie JO - Advances in Applied Mathematics and Mechanics VL - 4 SP - 799 EP - 815 PY - 2022 DA - 2022/02 SN - 14 DO - http://doi.org/10.4208/aamm.OA-2021-0364 UR - https://global-sci.org/intro/article_detail/aamm/20285.html KW - Chaos, statistical stability, reproducibility and replication. AB -

In this paper, a new concept, i.e., ultra-chaos, is proposed for the first time. Unlike a normal-chaos, statistical properties such as the probability density functions (PDF) of an ultra-chaos are sensitive to tiny disturbances. We illustrate that ultra-chaos is widely existed and thus has general scientific meanings. It is found that statistical non-reproducibility is an inherent property of an ultra-chaos so that an ultra-chaos is at a higher-level of disorder than a normal-chaos. Thus, it is impossible in practice to replicate experimental/numerical results of an ultra-chaos even in statistical meanings, since random environmental noises always exist and are out of control. Thus, the ultra-chaos should be an insurmountable obstacle of reproducibility and replicability. Similar to Gödel's incompleteness theorem, such kind of "incompleteness of reproducibility" reveals a limitation of our traditional scientific paradigm based on reproducible experiments, which can be traced back to Galileo. The ultra-chaos opens a new door and possibility to study chaos theory, turbulence theory, computational fluid dynamics (CFD), the statistical significance, reproducibility crisis, and so on.